How To Forcast Interest Rates Fluctuations

Intuitively, many people know that low rates of interest are not times to save, and if the rates of interest are not time invest (at least borrowing). Therefore, people are always outstanding read the newspaper, listen to the news on the television and listen to the renowned economists to know their opinions about the future of interest rates. I’m going to give a tip that they gave me in the masters of finance, this tip is not a theory that behaves 100% faithful in practice but does in large quantity of times. You turn on the television or buy the newspaper and sees the ads of banks. If you see excessive bank ads promoting loans with fixed rates of interest, then surely the interest rates go down or are going to keep low. On the other hand, if you see excessive ads of banks promoting savings in the fixed term, then surely the interest rates are going to rise or are going to stay high. What is the reason of? This?, fijate: suppose the passive interest rates (savings) are at 8%, and banks estimate that they will go up to 10%, then they promoted savings to fixed-term with an approximate rate of 9%. With this, to raise rates to 10%, there are a large number of customers with their savings tied to 9%.

I.e., are becoming inexpensive customers to keep their savings. That differential of 10% 9% = 1%, earn the banks with such a strategy. On the other hand, if si las tasas them rates active interest (credits) are 20% and the banks estimate that they will go down to 18%, then they promoted credit term and fixed rates approximate to 19%. Then, when rates fall to 18% there is a large number of customers with their credits tied to 19%, i.e., customers are going to pay more expensive your credit value. That differential, of course, banks earn them.

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