Global Energy Studies

Iran, Algeria, Angola, Libya, Venezuela and Ecuador voted against the proposal. The refusal in OPEC will have few immediate consequences, since it is presumed that Saudi Arabia will increase their deliveries to the market, using part of the nearly 3.5 million barrels of crude oil per day from its surplus capacity. Strictly speaking, Saudi Arabia, the largest producer of crude oil in the world, is already exceeding its quota on something as well as one million barrels of crude oil a day, says Emilio Cardenas, former Ambassador of the Republic Argentina to the United Nations. But the consequences are being felt, the expectation on a higher offer by Saudi Arabia, largest producer of the world’s oil, is pressuring the price of crude downward. Arabia increase its crude oil production from 8.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in may, to 10 million barrels per day, said the newspaper al – Hayat. Saudi Arabia has not extracted 10 million bpd for at least one decade, according to data from Reuters, production having peaked in July 2008 to 9.7 million bpd after prices touched a record of $ 147/barrel. It is the only oil producer inside and outside OPEC with significant availability capability. But this move is due to what moves markets: the expectations forward.

The market achieves read more demand today and assumes that this will be maintained, and whenever there’s no other conflict geopolitical, at least until OPEC again reunited in December or in an emergency meeting which translates as greater availability and a more offered commodity. The message from OPEC is that supply remains abundant. The result is the sale of positions. However, the Centre for Global energy studies (Centre for Global Energy Studies, CGES) says that the offer is already today insufficient to supply the market. Global inventories of crude oil fell at a rate of more than 1.4 million barrels per day in the second half of 2010. Saudi Arabia acknowledged having lowered their production in a few 800,000 barrels per day in March from February.

The reasons for the rise in prices of oil are not only bid, but also the demand side. They will have broken records absolute production at the beginning of the year – 90 million barrels a day–exceeding pre-crisis levels. The economic revival – if either slow – in countries such as United States or Europeans especially joined demand from emerging countries such as China, pressed about the price. According to the information of the energy management (EIA for its acronym in English) of the United States, Chinese production primary energy intensity more than twice to the European Union. In addition, China has emerged recently as the demanding world’s largest power, beating the previous leader, United States. China doubles energy consumption every ten years. Today over 10 million barrels per day, almost equaling the consumption of the EU. Even though the price of crude is correcting rising these days, its price remains high and should be kept. The real problem pressing on a very sensitive topic to world economies currently: economic recovery. The rise of oil will have an impact on global growth and according to the OECD, this cost almost one point of growth to countries more developed towards 2012. And same emerging economies, today engine of international growth, might be slowed down their economies.

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